Compare
Bali, Lombok and Sumba side by side
The same mechanisms, different circumstances. Lombok and Sumba are not simply an earlier version of Bali.
Bali:Consolidation, partly Stagnation
Lombok:Development
Sumba:Mostly Exploration
Bali:Very high
Lombok:Growing
Sumba:Still low
Bali:Yes
Lombok:Yes
Sumba:No
Bali:Continuous, from existing hotspots
Lombok:In separate coastal clusters, from Kuta
Sumba:Separate luxury enclaves
Bali:Correcting after problems have arisen
Lombok:Partly in advance, mainly at Mandalika
Sumba:Flexible, per project
Bali:Lags behind construction
Lombok:In advance at Mandalika, uncertain beyond
Sumba:Projects arrange it themselves
Bali:Densification, traffic, water
Lombok:Development outside Mandalika outpacing planning
Sumba:Land positions, land rights, beach access
Risks
What can go wrong, and where
On Bali these problems are already visible. On Lombok and Sumba they are mostly risks that can grow with further development. This is a qualitative assessment, not a measurement.
How to read the scale The assessment is qualitative and looks at how large a risk can become, not at the scale on which it occurs now. Low means the risk is currently only present to a limited extent, medium that first signs are visible or that the risk can increase with further growth, and high that the risk is already clearly present or follows strongly from the current development pattern. A high score therefore does not mean the risk is already playing out on a large scale, but that it is clearly part of the development pattern and can become large with further growth. This applies to the whole matrix, and especially to Sumba, where risks are currently low overall because development is still small-scale. Bali serves as the reference case, because densification, traffic, water pressure and loss of open space are already visible there.
Densification and building pressure
Around Kuta and other coastal clusters the number of projects is growing, so land can be built on more intensively. Sumba is large, still has a lot of open space and has only a few projects.
Spreading without a coherent area vision
Around Mandalika there is a clear area vision, but beyond it the market is shifting towards Tampah, Lancing Bay and Selong Belanak. On Sumba there are few projects, but each works independently and arranges its own infrastructure. According to a respondent, the first hotspot is emerging around Kerewe, in clusters.
Infrastructure lagging behind
Within Mandalika infrastructure is tied to development; beyond it, facilities can fall behind. On Sumba resorts arrange a lot themselves, so no shared capacity emerges. Because tourism is still at a very low level, the risk is limited for now.
Traffic pressure
Lombok does not have the same traffic problems as Bali yet, but growth around Kuta can increase the pressure. On Sumba the projects are far apart and tourism is too small for structural congestion.
Pressure on water and energy
On both islands growth can put pressure on local facilities. On Sumba individual projects often arrange water and energy themselves, without shared planning.
Loss of open space and landscape
On Lombok the open coastal landscape is a big part of the appeal and can disappear with further building. Sumba still has a lot of space, but beaches and large private land positions can locally change a large part of the coast.
Uncontrolled coastal building
Lombok has formal rules for coastal protection, building intensity and risk areas; the risk lies mainly in enforcement. On Sumba coastal rules exist, but their application and formal recording are uncertain.
Limited public access to beaches
On Lombok public coastal access is explicitly part of the policy. On Sumba resorts sometimes buy large enclosed stretches of coast; if this repeats, the coast could in the long run mainly become accessible to resort guests.
Weak or inconsistent enforcement
On Lombok illegal buildings have been removed, but respondents differ on how strong the steering is. On Sumba the approach is flexible and depends on agreements per project.
Unclear land rights and conflicts
On Lombok land rights are better organised, but good due diligence remains necessary. On Sumba traditional (adat) rights and missing or unclear titles matter more.
Development faster than spatial planning
On Lombok there is already a plan at Mandalika and spatial rules that are enforced apply elsewhere too; the government does need to stay critical to prevent a repeat of Bali. On Sumba development is still small-scale and is not expected to outpace the limited planning in the short term.
- Low
- Medium
- High
What the matrix shows
The matrix mainly shows a difference in the kind of risk. On Lombok the biggest task is guiding further growth. Development is spreading from Kuta to new coastal clusters, so densification, infrastructure and preserving the coastal landscape become more important. Around Mandalika steering already happens in advance, and spatial rules that are enforced apply elsewhere too. I therefore rate the risk of development outpacing steering as medium, but the government has to stay critical so that the same does not develop as on Bali.
On Sumba the risks are generally lower, because the island is large, still has a lot of open space and has only a few projects. The main risks lie in the development process: large private land positions, separate resorts that arrange their own facilities, unclear land rights and limited area-wide steering can determine the future spatial structure early on, for example by limiting access to beaches.
For both islands the main risks arise when property development moves faster than infrastructure and spatial steering. On Lombok that is mainly a point of attention outside Mandalika, on Sumba only when growth increases.
In short
Not the growth, but the order
The biggest risk arises when property development moves faster than infrastructure and planning can keep up with. Bali shows what that does. Lombok and Sumba can still choose to do it in a different order, as long as there is space.
What matters most to me is that the choice always stays with you. All I want to do is inform you honestly and show you the options clearly.